Executive signal
The GTA remained balanced but increasingly supply-sensitive in August. Sales were down 2.1% year over year, while new listings fell 14.1% and active listings fell 11.3%. Prices were still lower than a year earlier and total market exposure lengthened, so leverage remains property-specific rather than uniformly favouring either side.
Market scorecard
- 4.6 months of inventory
- 97% average sale-to-list ratio
- 51 average property days on market
Main counter-risk: New listings fell 14.1% and active listings fell 11.3% year over year, reducing choice in some neighbourhoods.
Who this affects and what could change
Prepared buyers comparing resale options across GTA submarkets.
Watch for: A sustained rise in sales relative to new listings or broad month-over-month price acceleration would reduce buyer leverage.
- Active listings fell 11.3% year over year
- Average price was down 2.7% year over year
- Average PDOM increased to 51 days
Main counter-risk: Longer total exposure and lower year-over-year prices show that overpricing can still stall a listing.
Who this affects and what could change
Sellers in well-presented, supply-constrained neighbourhoods.
Watch for: Higher sale-to-list ratios and shorter market times across more submarkets would strengthen the seller outlook.
- The Bank of Canada policy rate remained 2.25%
- Average resale price was down 2.7% year over year
- 4.6 months of inventory supports selective analysis
Main counter-risk: Borrowing costs, operating expenses, tenant-law assumptions and property condition can materially change returns.
Who this affects and what could change
Long-horizon investors assessing cash flow rather than headline appreciation.
Watch for: Lower verified financing costs or stronger property-specific rents would improve the acquisition case.
- Ontario's 2027 rent guideline is 1.9%
- Most units first occupied after November 15, 2018 remain exempt
- Notice and timing rules still apply
Main counter-risk: Unit-level exemptions and turnover pricing can create very different outcomes.
Who this affects and what could change
Tenants planning a 2027 renewal or move.
Watch for: A current TRREB rental report showing a sustained vacancy or rent shift would change this view.
- The latest baseline is sales-market-led
- The policy rate remained unchanged
- Rental rules remain property-specific
Main counter-risk: The August Market Watch does not include a fresh GTA rental-market dataset.
Who this affects and what could change
Landlords and tenants comparing lease timing across GTA submarkets.
Watch for: The next verified TRREB rental report will materially improve the leasing-market view.
Material developments
August supply fell faster than sales
TRREB reported 5,057 sales, 12,075 new listings and 24,482 active listings. Sales fell 2.1% year over year, while new listings fell 14.1% and active listings fell 11.3%.
Open primary source ↗The policy rate stayed at 2.25%
The Bank of Canada held its target rate on September 2. The Bank cited stronger second-quarter growth alongside elevated inflation and trade-related uncertainty; the next scheduled decision is October 28.
Open primary source ↗Ontario's 2027 rent guideline remains 1.9%
The guideline applies to most covered tenancies. Exemptions, the unit's occupancy history, notice requirements and timing should still be checked before acting.
Open primary source ↗TRREB baseline
TRREB Market Watch interpretation
August conditions were not simply weaker or stronger. Fewer new and active listings tightened choice, but prices remained below last year and average total exposure increased. That combination rewards property-level comparison instead of a single market label.
Average price and median price answer different questions. The average is more sensitive to transaction mix, while the median describes the middle sale. TRREB's MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark was down 4.5% year over year and essentially flat month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Listing days on market can reset after a property is relisted; property days on market captures broader exposure. The 35-day LDOM and 51-day PDOM gap makes listing history especially relevant to pricing and negotiation.
Banks, rates and economy
The Bank of Canada held the policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, 2026. It reported stronger second-quarter activity but also noted inflation near 3%, higher energy costs and continued trade uncertainty.
A stable policy rate does not guarantee a specific mortgage offer. Fixed products also respond to bond markets, while variable pricing, qualification and lender spreads differ by borrower and product. Confirm current terms with a licensed mortgage professional.
Government and LTB
Ontario's 2027 rent increase guideline is 1.9% for most covered tenancies. The guideline applies to eligible increases taking effect in 2027.
Most units first occupied for residential purposes after November 15, 2018 remain exempt from the guideline. Landlords and tenants should verify the unit's history, notice requirements and any applicable exemption before relying on a general rule.
Buyer timing assessment
Buyers still have room to compare and negotiate where a property has accumulated exposure, but the year-over-year decline in listing supply is the main counter-risk. A defined budget, current financing and a neighbourhood-level competitive set matter more than waiting for a single GTA-wide signal.
Seller timing assessment
Sellers may benefit from reduced competition in supply-constrained pockets, but longer total exposure and lower year-over-year prices show that preparation and initial pricing remain decisive. The strongest strategy is based on current alternatives in the same area, property type and price band.
Client talking points
- Ask how the property's total market exposure compares with the current listing's days on market.
- Separate tightening listing supply from the still-lower year-over-year price measures.
- Model payments and qualification using a current lender quote after the September 2 rate decision.
Review well-located resale properties with longer total exposure before supply tightens further. The best candidates still need sound condition, carrying costs and resale fundamentals rather than a market-wide assumption.
Sources
- GTA Market Watch — August 2026Toronto Regional Real Estate Board · Published September 4, 2026 · Accessed September 6, 2026
- Bank of Canada maintains the policy rate at 2¼%Bank of Canada · Published September 2, 2026 · Accessed September 6, 2026
- Residential rent increasesGovernment of Ontario · Published June 23, 2026 · Accessed September 6, 2026
Market information is provided for general informational purposes and may change without notice. It is not individualized legal, mortgage, tax or investment advice. Market conditions vary by property, location and client circumstances. Consult the appropriate qualified professional before relying on a legal, financing, tax or investment conclusion.